The Stears Business team has put together a series of live-data visualisations which will help you track the spread of the virus in Nigeria since the first case on 27th February 2020.
1. "Flattening the curve" - watch out for the rate of daily reported cases
A logarithmic scale better captures the rate at which cases are increasing. Viruses spread exponentially, not linearly. And so, using a regular linear graph makes it difficult to visualise and understand if the speed of daily cases is rising or not.
The total number of cases will increase each day, so a linear chart will continue to rise. The consensus measure for success is the rate of change (i.e. by how much cases are increasing). "Flattening the curve" refers to the logarithmic curve which shows the rate of increase in the number of cases. This is what a log scale chart makes easy to visualise.
Live Data: Growth of coronavirus cases on a logarithmic scale
Click to see day-to-day changes
Live Data: Daily reported covid-19 deaths
2. Tested samples
Nigeria’s number of cases is likely to be underestimated given Nigeria’s low test rate. Nigeria recorded its first case on February 27th but it was not until April 23rd that it tested over 10,000 samples.
The NCDC continues to ramp up testing. In April 2020, the NCDC published their testing strategy and set the target to test 2 million Nigerians in the next three months. That’s 160,000 tests a week.
3. Community Spread
Nigerian cases initially came from international travellers arriving in Lagos and Abuja but now cases are more community linked. The map below shows how Lagos - the state with the most cases - has spread the virus to surrounding states. You can monitor its spread below:
Live Data: Map of Coronavirus cases in Nigeria
Click on the map to see details.
Live Data: Coronavirus cases and deaths by state