This is Nigeria

This is Nigeria

The Nigerian society, like many others, conflates the political sphere, and its revolving casts and incredulous plots, with actual governance. This column contrasts the vast stories of politics with the hard truths of governance to give a sense of how Nigeria can be great again.

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Four assumptions that influence the 2023 Elections

A F Adekaiyaoja

A F Adekaiyaoja

Afolabi is interested in the intersection between politicking and governance in Nigeria.

We are now in the era of permanent campaigns; elections are no longer quadrennial events, each begins the moment the other ends. As we prepare for Buhari's inauguration, we must begin planning for the four years that will come after him. We must ask what Nigeria will look like, so that we can align our expectations. As a matter of fact, permutations for 2023 have already begun

Here are just four assumptions—based on the 2019 results—that may prove key over the next four years.

 

Assumption One: There is no King in the North

Buhari has consistently pulled millions of votes, hitting highs of 12 million in 2003 and 2011 before his victory in 2015. In doing so, he has developed a reputation as a powerhouse in the North, which some mistake as the APC's popularity. But is Buhari really the King in the North and does his party reign supreme in Northern Nigeria?

Making allowance for election malpractice, there has been one major factor influencing each election outcome for Buhari: Northern opposition. Let’s look at his track record; he lost in 2007 when the Northern Yar’Adua was supported by the incumbent PDP, lost in 2011 against a popular Southern incumbent, won in 2015 against an unpopular Southern candidate, and defeated a less popular Northerner as the incumbent in 2019.

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