Chart of the Week: Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire's cocoa production decline will impact economic growth

The forecast for the 2034/2024 cocoa crop season in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, which jointly account for two-thirds of global cocoa production, points to a significant decline due to adverse weather conditions and disease concerns.

Since the start of the season in October 2023, exports from Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana have dropped by 28% and 35%, respectively, compared to the same period in the previous season. This decline in output has led to a substantial surge in cocoa prices, rising by 163.3% to $9,361.4/tonne between October 2023 and March 2024. 

While this trend has caused a 3x surge in chocolate prices, the ramifications extend beyond the global chocolate market, impacting the economic growth of Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana.

In Côte d'Ivoire, cocoa farming accounts for 15% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and employs nearly 6 million people, representing a fifth of the country’s population. In Ghana, cocoa contributed