Why Nigeria’s inflation calculation needs an upgrade
Key questions this article answers:
- Amid fuel subsidy removal and FX liberalisation policies, Nigeria’s annual inflation rate was up 129 bps from June to 24.08% in July 2023. Is this reflective of the microeconomic reality?
- Record increases in energy prices seem to have a muted impact on Nigeria’s inflation numbers. What are the implications of the opaqueness in statistical inaccuracies?
For as long as I can remember, the public has always accepted Nigeria’s published macroeconomic statistics with a pinch of salt.
The vox populi mostly being that the situation on the ground differs greatly from what these numbers represent. A classic example, which is the focus of this article, is Nigeria’s inflation rate.
A few days ago, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the nation’s annual inflation figures for July 2023, which rose 129 basis points (bps) higher than June’s at 24.08%. While this disheartening figure represents the highest inflation rate recorded in over two decades, many (including myself) still disregarded this figure as a gross underestimation of the reality of most Nigerians.
Amid bold reforms like the fuel subsidy removal, which saw PMS prices skyrocket by over 150% since May, and FX market reforms, which saw the naira fall 64% to ₦774 to $1 as of 22nd August,
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